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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-09-03T20:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-09-03T20:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33152/-1
CME Note: Bright CME first seen in the NE by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2024-09-03T20:12Z as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 and STEREO A COR2 in later frames. This event is partially obscured in STEREO A by a data gap from 03/14:38Z to 03/22:53Z. The source of this CME is an area of dimming spanning from N25E30 to N10E03 but is centered around N10E20. Although a majority of the dimming appears to be more central, there are field lines that appear to open more towards the NE as seen in SDO AIA 171 and 211.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-09-06T17:10Z (-7.67h, +10.44h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 66.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2024/09/03 20:20Z
Plane of Sky 1: 03:00Z; 27.5Rsun; NE Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 09:00Z; 27.5Rsun; SW Direction
POS Difference: 6:00
POS Midpoint: 06:00Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 9:40

Numeric View/Impact Type: 3
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.12
Travel Time: ~7.12 * 9:40 = 68:50

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-09-06T17:10Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5


Forecast Creation Time: 2024/09/04 04:36Z

Lead Time: 60.52 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-09-04T04:39Z

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